THE NORTH: elections warn of

of things have become clear .. . (i) The trend towards complete polarisation continues. (ii) Within the framework of that polarisation the Loyalists, supported by Britain, are taking control of the situation. (iii) The minority is determined to fight for important changes, and within the minority there has been a shift towards the revolutionary wing.

POLARISATION With Britain’s original plans it was hoped to break down sectarian barriers by creating a centre party that could outflank, or at least hold the balance between, the traditional parties of the S.D.L.P. and the Unionists. When the Alliance Party and the N.I.L-.P. together got only 12% of the vote in the Assembly Election it was considered disastrous. In the recent Election the Centre did even worse getting only 8% of the vote. What this decline shows is that the Centre is not only small but that it has lost its appeal. The ideas of “moderation” and “reconciliation which gained ground after the abolition of Stormont have completely lost their attraction.

What must be answered now is: Why this polarisation? The likes of Conor ‘Collaborator’

tnuer OF THIg FOYFUL FRivoerTy! “Tig TIME TO EXPLAIN THE (GSH QUESTION To THE BarnsH Puguc!

Sia Following the elections in the North a number O’Brien will say that it occurred because of the activities of the “‘men of violence”. But this is nonsense, The armed struggle was at a higher pitch during the “period of reconciliation” (between the fall of Stormont and the Assembly Elections) than during the period of polarisation.

The real reason for the polarisation is that Britain has abandoned her plans to carry out even limited reforms in the North. This had demoralised the “moderate” Unionists and inflated the moral of Loyalists, Like rats deserting the sinking ship the proFaulkner Unionists are shifting over to the Loyalist camp, At the same time the S.D.L.P. finds itself left in the lurch. So to cover up its past it is taking on a left and Republican image to retain its support among Catholic workers who have become disillusioned.

Following the Election results, therefore, we put the blame for growing sectaranism where it clearly belongs -with the British State and its collaborators, LOYALIST POWER Britain’s capitulation to Loyalism is confirmed by the dramatic revival of Loyalism in recent times. In the 30.6% of the yote, while the Faulknerite Unionists got . 30.7%. But the frazmented nature of the Loyalist block meant that although it’s vote was equal to that of the Paulknerites, they were still in a much less favourable situation. In the recent Elections, however, the Loyalist Coalition got 58% of the total poll, and completely mopped up the Faulknerite vote. This was indeed an between the two communities.

EFFECTS ON THE MINORITY The fact that the polarisation in the North stems from of victory except in one area.

Assembly Elections the combined Loyalist forces got only | oyatist prejudices by cow-towing before the British in its massive increase in votes. The real expression of the Loyalists success is to be found in its continuing shifts to the extreme Right. Every victory for the Loyalists brings a new shift to the Right. Already they have rejected power-sharing and the Irish dimension. During the Election campaign Powell announced that the Loyalists would not bother contesting the Convention Elections. Although he was contradicted on this by the U.U.U.C. leaders, prominent Loyalist spokesmen such as James Kilfedder have also said that they have an open mind on the subject. This equivocation can only mean that if the Loyalists feel strong enough they will cut short all negotiations with the minority and press for the full implementation of their own policies, i.e, the restoration of Stormont.

The fact that the Loyalists gained almost undivided support in the Protestant community, amounting to well over half of all the electorate, puts a question mark over the future of the Convention. The only issue at stake is whether they will try to sweep the Convention aside or use it as a launching pad for a provisional Government. But there can no longer be any hope of reconciliation on a democratic basis Within the framework of sharpening sectarian contradictions the position of the minority has strengthened. Despite the increased turn out at the polls the minority managed to slightly increase its share of the total vote. This shows that the Catholic working class, despite recent blows to its confidence, limited change. has not given up hope of change, and certainly has not resigned itself to a return of the old Stormont. In each constituency they turned out in greater numbers than ever, even though they had no chance As yet the minority still supports the S.D.L.P. They don’t realise that the S.D.L.P. only encourages Government and the Unionists. Yet the awakening of the minority to more revolutionary politics which was already visible in the Assembly and previous Westministe: ruled out by the objective conditions and afl the Conor Election results continued in this Election as well. Those Collaborators in Ireland wont change those conditions. forces which fought the Election on the platform of opposing a Sunningdale-type compromise won 30% of the minority vote. Had the Provos participated that vote. The major component of it was made up by Maguire’s poll in Fermanagh - South Tyrone, who undoubtedly attracted a large number of §.D.L.P. votes who had no choice other than to yote for him. Yet two things must be said about this. Firstly, it shows that there is no traditional loyalty to the S.D.L.P. and the minority is willing to support opponents of the S.D.L.P. provided they are presented with a credible alternative. This makes it the duty of all revolutionary not to allow their genuine differences to prevent unity on the key issue upon which they are agreed. It is obvious that even now the large sections of the minority would support a revolutionary alternative to the S.D.L.P. provided they could be sure that those proposing it were politically mature and put the real needs and interests of the minority above sectional in-fighting. Secondly, the trend away from the S.D.L.P. is confirmed by'the impressive showing of the Officials who increased — their vote share of the poll from 13,064 votes in the Assembly Elections to 21,632 votes on this occasion. These figures represent an incfease from 6% to 12% of the minority vote, notwithstanding the fact that they had less candidates.

THE FINAL PICTURE The results of the Election show that all the ingredients are present for a major confrontation, This confrontation cannot be postponed indefinitely. The Loyalists want to keep the minority under foot. The minority demands fundamental reforms. Britain can no longer carry forward it’s programme of Lenin once wrote that, when the ruling class can no longer continue to rule as before, when the oppressed and exploited can no longer endure their suffering and when there is no room for short term solutions, then revolution or counter-revolution is on the agenda. That is the situation in the North today.

For such a situation only revolutionary policies and revolutionary methods will do. It would be short sighted to consider compromise now. Compromise is That is the major lesson of the Elections.

DARA McEVOY.